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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-108/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 57.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.1% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The 2nd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chiefs this year (a massive 61.5 per game on average).
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
  • The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (37.9 per game) this year.
  • In this contest, Travis Kelce is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.5 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line indicates a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see just 128.0 total plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Travis Kelce has been a less important option in his team's pass game this year (18.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (24.6%).
  • Travis Kelce has posted far fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a noteable regression in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 3.5% mark.

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