Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 12, 2025

Updated Nov 24, 2025 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The projections expect Travis Kelce to earn 7.4 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have only 128.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
Travis Kelce's 19.0% Target Rate this year conveys an impressive drop-off in his passing offense volume over last year's 24.6% rate.
Travis Kelce has totaled far fewer air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates an impressive drop-off in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 3.5% rate.

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