Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 25, 2024 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
In this game, Travis Kelce is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 8.3 targets.

Favors Under

Travis Kelce's 54.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 68.0 figure.
Travis Kelce's 74.4% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 80.1% rate.
Travis Kelce's receiving effectiveness has declined this season, totaling a mere 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.71 mark last season.
Travis Kelce's 3.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a remarkable reduction in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 4.8% figure.
The Steelers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends this year, yielding 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.