Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (+108/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 74.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 71.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to earn 9.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (77.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 49.4.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) versus TEs this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, yielding 4.51 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.96 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.

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