Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-159/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce has put up a colossal 64.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce's 50.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 97th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.