Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +103 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.9% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has accrued a monstrous 68.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce's 54.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 99th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.