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Travis Etienne Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-164/+146).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -174 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -164.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.5 plays per game.Travis Etienne has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 10.0% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among RBs.Travis Etienne grades out in the 85th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.14 per game.This year, the deficient New York Jets defense has yielded a whopping 0.31 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-worst rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 13.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are a heavy favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.At the moment, the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (47.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars.Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased run volume.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.4 per game) this year.
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