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Travis Etienne Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-215).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +156.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.The Jaguars have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.With an extraordinary 11.8% Red Zone Target% (85th percentile) this year, Travis Etienne ranks as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.Travis Etienne ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an excellent 0.10 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Jaguars have been the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 51.5% red zone run rate.The model projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Among all RBs, Travis Etienne ranks in the 79th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, taking on 45.1% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line.As it relates to air yards, Travis Etienne grades out in the paltry 10th percentile among running backs this year, with just -6.0 per game.With a poor 78.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (22nd percentile) this year, Travis Etienne places among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs.
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