Travis Etienne Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Travis Etienne

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Etienne Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars rank as the 7th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 53.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his team's run game near the goal line this week (78.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.2% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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