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Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Travis Etienne Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -104.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jaguars rank as the 7th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 53.0% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
  • THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his team's run game near the goal line this week (78.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.2% in games he has played).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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