Travis Etienne Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Travis Etienne

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Etienne Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-176).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -173 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -176.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars have been the 8th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 49.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (59.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.8% in games he has played).
Travis Etienne has rushed for 0.31 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (76th percentile).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles grade out as the 8th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least touchdowns in football (0.54 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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