Travis Etienne Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 20

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Etienne Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-157/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to accrue 17.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (70.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.7% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have risked going for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.