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Tony Pollard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+168/-170).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +174 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +168.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (59.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Tennessee Titans.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.Tony Pollard has accumulated a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).Tony Pollard's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 74.4% to 81.8%.This year, the weak Saints pass defense has given up a colossal 89.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 3rd-largest rate in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Titans as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Titans this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.With a poor 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, Tony Pollard stands as one of the pass-catching RBs with the lowest utilization rates near the goal line in the league.
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