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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Tony Pollard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +154.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Titans.
  • When talking about air yards, Tony Pollard grades out in the towering 81st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a remarkable 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
  • Tony Pollard's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 74.3% to 81.7%.
  • This year, the shaky Chiefs defense has been gouged for a colossal 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Titans to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
  • Tony Pollard has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among running backs.
  • Tony Pollard's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 18.1.

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