Tony Pollard Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.9% run rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to garner 18.4 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tony Pollard has been worse at picking up extra ground yardage this year, accumulating 2.71 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.82 figure last year.
The Patriots defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.06 yards-per-carry.
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New England's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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