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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 13.5-point advantage, the Titans are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 50.7% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • The Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.
  • The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
  • Tony Pollard's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 74.4% to 82.8%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Titans to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Tony Pollard's 11.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 18.1.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been great this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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