Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Tony Pollard has run a route on 57.8% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The model projects Tony Pollard to total 3.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Tony Pollard ranks as one of the leading RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans since the start of last season (a mere 54.3 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.
The Tennessee offensive line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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