Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 9, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
The model projects Tony Pollard to accumulate 3.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard rates in the 97th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a superb 22.1 figure this year.
With a remarkable 3.1 adjusted receptions per game (92nd percentile) this year, Tony Pollard rates as one of the best pass-game running backs in football.
This year, the weak Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up a colossal 86.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 53.1% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 56.3 plays per game.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year.

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