Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 3.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
Tony Pollard has run more routes this season (57.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.3%).
The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard's receiving talent has gotten a boost this season, averaging 3.8 adjusted catches vs just 2.4 last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

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