Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.43 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to notch 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

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