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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 13.5-point advantage, the Titans are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 50.7% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • The Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.
  • Tony Pollard has notched a colossal 1.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Titans to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Tony Pollard's 11.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 18.1.
  • Tony Pollard's ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.39 rate last season.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been great this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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