Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offense to tilt 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (63.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a huge favorite by 13.5 points.
Tony Pollard's 5.2 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a noteable decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 6.5 rate.
Tony Pollard's 6.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a substantial regression in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 9.7% figure.
This year, the strong Commanders pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a mere 6.1 YAC.

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