Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to garner 3.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard has compiled a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 89.5% to 78.1%.
Tony Pollard's receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling just 6.48 yards-per-target vs a 7.73 figure last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) versus running backs this year.

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