Tony Pollard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 129.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
In this game, Tony Pollard is expected by the model to finish in the 98th percentile among RBs with 18.6 rush attempts.
After comprising 64.6% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Tony Pollard has played a bigger part in the run game this season, now comprising 77.3%.
The Houston Texans linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to run on 40.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

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