Tony Pollard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).
In this game, Tony Pollard is expected by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile among running backs with 15.8 rush attempts.
After accounting for 41.6% of his team's rush attempts last season, Tony Pollard has been more involved in the ground game this season, currently comprising 61.0%.
The Bills defensive tackles project as the 3rd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run on 39.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

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