Tony Pollard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 17.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys as the 4th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This week, Tony Pollard is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 95th percentile among RBs with 17.9 carries.
Tony Pollard has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (62.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (41.6%).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to tilt 5.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.38 seconds per snap.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
The Giants defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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