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Tommy Tremble

Tommy Tremble Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Tommy Tremble Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+530/-600).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -800 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -600.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Panthers are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • The model projects the Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect Tommy Tremble to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (11.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.8% in games he has played).
  • The Carolina offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • This year, the anemic Buccaneers pass defense has yielded a whopping 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 125.9 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Tommy Tremble has put up far fewer air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (15.0 per game).
  • Tommy Tremble's 74.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks an impressive regression in his receiving skills over last season's 80.0% mark.
  • Tommy Tremble ranks in the 20th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.06 per game.

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