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Tommy Tremble Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-200).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -13-point disadvantage, the Panthers are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.The Panthers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.9 plays per game.The Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (41.7 per game) this year.When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.Tommy Tremble's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 80.0% to 85.8%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the present time, the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Carolina Panthers.Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.Tommy Tremble has been less involved as a potential target this season (45.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.7%).As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Green Bay's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in football.
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