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Tommy Tremble

Tommy Tremble Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Tommy Tremble Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -195.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Panthers are a heavy 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
  • The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.0% pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Tommy Tremble's 42.8% Route Participation% this year shows a material reduction in his passing attack volume over last year's 55.7% rate.
  • Tommy Tremble's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 80.0% to 73.3%.
  • The Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.9%) to tight ends this year (72.9%).

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