Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 69.3% red zone pass rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a lowly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.