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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 68.5% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.92 per game this year.

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a mere 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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