Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-169/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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