Tom Brady Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 32.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to accumulate 1.5 carries in this week's game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Tom Brady has grinded out just 4.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (15th percentile).
Tom Brady has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging just 1.54 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.