Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 271.5 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 271.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 271.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 42.7 passes this week, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-least yards in football (just 209.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 7.55 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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