Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 286.5 (-145/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 284.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 286.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Tom Brady has been among the top passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 268.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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