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Tom Brady

Tom Brady Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 257.5 (+165/-234).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 256.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 257.5 @ +165.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Tom Brady has been among the top passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 278.0 yards per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Tom Brady's throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.3% to 61.7%.
  • Tom Brady's passing efficiency has declined this year, compiling just 6.48 yards-per-target vs a 7.57 rate last year.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 217.0 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (67.7%).

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