Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 257.5 (+165/-234).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 256.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 257.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Tom Brady has been among the top passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 278.0 yards per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tom Brady's throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.3% to 61.7%.
Tom Brady's passing efficiency has declined this year, compiling just 6.48 yards-per-target vs a 7.57 rate last year.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 217.0 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (67.7%).

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