Tom Brady Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Interceptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have intercepted 0.92 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out as the 10th-best defense in football by this metric.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.