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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+375/-440).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +415 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +375.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (64.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Vikings.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 68.8% to 76.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Lions defense this year (66.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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