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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-320).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -330 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -320.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Vikings.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • After totaling 54.0 air yards per game last season, T.J. Hockenson has posted significant losses this season, now pacing 24.0 per game.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Chargers defense this year (65.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the shaky Los Angeles Chargers run defense has yielded a whopping 1.43 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

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