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T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-520).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +415 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +420.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Vikings being a -5-point underdog in this week's game.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.

The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the projection model to call just 63.8 offensive plays in this game: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.

The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 51.5 plays per game.

After totaling 54.0 air yards per game last season, T.J. Hockenson has undergone a big decline this season, now averaging 20.0 per game.

T.J. Hockenson's 28.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 41.0.

This year, the weak Dallas Cowboys run defense has conceded a whopping 1.31 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-largest rate in the league.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

T.J. Hockenson TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 15

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15