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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-580).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -550 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -580.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.6% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 79.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a material boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 68.8% rate.
  • This year, the weak Commanders defense has yielded a colossal 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the porous Washington Commanders defense has yielded a staggering 0.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • T.J. Hockenson has notched far fewer air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 41.0.

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