T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 13, 2025

Updated Nov 30, 2025 9:02 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-730).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -730.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (64.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Vikings.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
The Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.4 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (only 52.1 per game on average).
T.J. Hockenson has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (19.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
T.J. Hockenson's 28.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 41.0.
This year, the tough Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded a puny 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-lowest rate in football.