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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-730).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -730.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (64.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Vikings.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.4 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (only 52.1 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (19.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 28.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • This year, the tough Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded a puny 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-lowest rate in football.

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