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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -370 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (18.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 26.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.

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