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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
  • With an exceptional 3.4 adjusted catches per game (84th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson ranks among the leading TE receiving threats in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 61.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • This year, the strong Detroit Lions defense has yielded a meager 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 6th-best rate in football.
  • The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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