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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • In this week's game, T.J. Hockenson is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • The Chargers pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.4%) to TEs this year (71.4%).
  • The Chargers safeties grade out as the 8th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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