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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+116/-149).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.8% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 132.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The model projects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson's receiving performance has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 3.0 adjusted receptions compared to 4.1 last season.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68%) to TEs this year (68.0%).
  • When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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