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T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-230).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.

The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.

With a stellar 3.4 adjusted receptions per game (78th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson places among the top pass-game TEs in football.

T.J. Hockenson's 79.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a material boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 68.8% rate.

This year, the weak Commanders pass defense has allowed a massive 79.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.

T.J. Hockenson's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 41.0.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

T.J. Hockenson ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 14