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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-161/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -156 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -161.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Vikings offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.92 seconds per play.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • In this game, T.J. Hockenson is expected by the model to find himself in the 76th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Minnesota Vikings profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • T.J. Hockenson's 27.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a remarkable decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.1 figure.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's safety corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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