My Account Log Out
 
 
T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-138/+119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +119.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 26.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 3.1 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a material regression in his receiving ability over last year's 4.1 figure.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™