T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Our trusted projections expect T.J. Hockenson to earn 8.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
T.J. Hockenson's 54.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.5.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

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