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T.J. Hockenson
NFL · Player Props
T.J. Hockenson
TE · Minnesota Vikings
Receptions
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022 Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC
NFL Props T.J. Hockenson Receptions

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Favors Over
  • The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Favors Under
  • The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 39.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 69.6%.
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