T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
T.J. Hockenson's 39.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 69.6%.

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